Diagnostic Framework
Diagnostic Sequence
- Policy Diagnosis — Was the policy objective sufficiently defined and matched to the mechanism chosen?
- Governance Diagnosis — Were responsibility and authority aligned across the implementing network?
- Dependency Diagnosis — Where were critical dependencies concentrated? Did they have redundancy?
- Capacity Diagnosis — Which capacity domains were sufficient? Which were insufficient?
- Debt Diagnosis — What implementation debt existed before the stress event?
- Fragility Diagnosis — Was the failure driven by veto fragility, execution fragility, or both?
- Outcome Analysis — At what stage did implementation succeed, degrade, or break?
- Intervention Design — What would improve the probability of achieving the intended outcome?
Diagnostic Classifications
- Policy design failure — the mechanism could not produce the objective
- Authority failure — the implementing institution lacked the necessary authority
- Capacity failure — the institution lacked specific capabilities required
- Dependency failure — a critical dependency broke without redundancy
- Fragility failure — an external actor or condition disrupted the pathway
- Debt revelation — accumulated structural weakness made failure likely
- Adaptive failure — the system could not diagnose and correct course
- Recovery success — the system failed initially but demonstrated adaptive capacity
- Design adequacy question — governance performed adequately; policy design limitations explain outcome
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